Rumors of War
Friday, December 28th, 2007Yesterday, Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto perished as a result of a suicide attack, along with at least 20 others, at a rally. Bhutto was on the campaign trail, campaigning for the Pakistan People’s Party. Unfortunately, I recieve conflicting reports from the US media as to her exact status in this campaign - on the one hand, I’m hearing that she was a popular figure, widely liked by moderates; and at the same time that her previous administrations were very corrupt, and her influence was much greater outside of Pakistan than within it. While there there is evidently some despute as to the exact cause of her death, that this was a targeted attack against her seems clear. The question the rest of the world is asking itself is, “What’s next?”
The elections are scheduled for January 8th. Given that Pakistan had just emerged from a state of martial law imposed by President Musharraf, it may be the case that elections will be moved back, or martial law may be redeclared. Bhutto had evidently contacted CNN’s Wolf Blitzer shortly before the contact via email, indicating her belief that were she to be assassinated, she thought the finger should be pointed at Musharraf, for failing to provide adequate security.
Given the largest concern for the rest of the world is probably going to be maintaining the stability of Pakistan and (more cynically) the nation’s nuclear arsenal, Musharraf may be able to once again play the “I’m keeping the peace, and the nukes out of the hands of radical Islamists” card and maintain his grip on power. While my suspicion is that current reporting is correct; that radical Islamists (who may or may not have any al-Qaeda ties) were responsible for the attack, Musharraf will no doubt milk this for all it’s worth. Various doomsday scenarios are being argued about on the internet, the most colorful involving a civil war which allows nukes to fall into some unspecified terrorist group’s hands, allowing the civil war to spill into a regional and perhaps global conflict.
On the other hand, I’m simply an American observer, who has little experience with the internal affairs of Pakistan. Let me instead direct you to www.nadirs.com - run by a Pakistani colleague of mine; he’ll doubtlessly have far more intelligent things to say on the matter than I - and perhaps much of the media - will.
My condolences to the families of Benazir Bhutto and the others who died in the attack.